Update Summary of Operation Epic Fury (for period 3-7 April 2026)
Executive Summary
On Monday, a press conference was held on the rescue of the “Dude 44” aircrew of the F-15E Strike Eagle that was shot down over Iran. Trump, Ratcliffe, Hegseth, and Caine all presented a brief. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is choking the movement of oil, gas, and fertilizer from the Persian Gulf. The United Kingdom hosted a virtual summit on Thursday, April 2, 2026, with over three dozen countries seeking to establish a plan for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Friday saw a number of U.S. aircraft get hit by hostile ground fire over Iran. Trump has set another deadline – this time all hell will break lose on Tuesday evening. The ‘new’ leadership of the Iranian regime appear to come from the hard line faction and this ‘new’ regime is not in danger of falling to mass demonstrations or an ‘insurgency’. While the Iranian military has been significantly degraded, it still retains about half of their missile launchers, half of their drones, and over the long-term will replace the shortages. At this point, there appears to be no sign that Iran will give up its nuclear material and it is unlikely that the U.S. can mount an operation to ‘take it’.
Top Photo: An A-10 Thunderbolt II moves into position behind a KC-135 Stratotanker before refueling. The A-10, deployed to Afghanistan from Moody AFB, Ga., in a mission providing close air support to coalition forces in Afghanistan in 2016. (DVIDS)
“Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory.
Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat”
Sun Tzu, The Art of War, 6th Century BC
Click here for a larger physiography map of Iran that opens in a new tab.
Key Developments
- Friday, April 3, 2026, was a tough day for U.S. aircraft. A F-15E was shot down and two aviators needed to be rescued. The two were recovered by late Saturday evening, but not without the loss of several more aircraft (details below).
- Trump says all Hell breaks loose point if Iran doesn’t open the Strait of Hormuz or come to the peace table with something substantive. This most recent deadline (I have lost count how many there have been) ends on 8 p.m. (Washington time), Tuesday, April 7, 2026.
- China and Russia appear to be providing Iran with intelligence analysis, AI-enabled analytics, commercial satellite imagery, weapons, and military equipment.
- As the Iran War drags on it would seem that Iran is going to play the ‘long game’; continue to take the punishment of air strikes but still ‘win’ in the end – retaining its nuclear material, gaining greater control of the Strait of Hormuz, and not ‘selling’ out its proxies.
- Press conference on personnel recovery of F-15E aircrew was conducted at 1:00 p.m. Monday by President Trump, CIA Director Radcliffe, SecDef Hegseth, and CJCS Caine.
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Photo: A U.S. Air Force F-15E Strike Eagle assigned to 494th Expeditionary Fighter Squadron lands at a base in the Middle East, January 18, 2026. Courtesy photo CENTCOM.
Monday Press Conference on Rescue of Dude 44
On Monday, April 6, 2026, at 1:00 p.m. a press conference was held by President Trump, CIA Director Radcliffe, SecDef Heseth, and CJCS Caine. They described how the personnel recovery event took place and provided details that had not been revealed beforehand.
CIA Director John Ratcliffe provided a brief explanation of how the agency provided human intelligence as well as “exquisite assets” to locate and verify the identification of the Weapons Systems Officer (WSO) “backseater” (Dude 44B). This intelligence was quickly passed to the Department of Defense which then moved to give the go-ahead for the rescue force to enter Iran and recover the second aircrew member. Ratcliffe went on to briefly describe a deception plan the CIA conducted to move the Iranian security forces attention to other locations in Iran in their search for the downed airman.
Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth provided a ‘big picture’ look of how the two rescue events took place. He offered praise for all the participants of the rescue operation. It seemed about half his time at the podium was providing an abundance of praise for our president (along with several remarks of a religioius nature).
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General “Raising” Caine presented some interesting details about the ‘nuts and bolts’ of the two rescue operations. This was easily the best part of the 1 1/2 hour long press conference.
Air Operations, Missiles, and Drones
A USAF F-15E Strike Eagle was shot down on Friday, April 3, 2026, over southwest Iran. On Friday one crew member, the pilot, was recovered in a daytime operation, approximately six hours after being shot down. During the recovery of “Dude 44A” or frontseater two HH-60W rescue helicopters were fired upon by Iranian ground forces, one helicopter was hit injuring several crew members; both aircraft returned safely to base. An A-10 Thunderbolt II supporting the rescue of the F-15E pilot received hostile fire. (NSI) The pilot got the aircraft out over the Persian Gulf, ejected, and was picked up by rescue forces. In addition, at least one, maybe two MQ-9 Reapers were damaged and downed during this timeframe; but it is not known if it was an incident connected with the downed F-15E. See “USAF F-15E Strike Eagle Downed in Iran”, SOF News, April 3, 2026.
On late Saturday night, the second F-15E crew member, a Weapons Systems Officer (WSO) or “backseater”, was rescued by a special operations task force. He evaded away from the crash site location to a nearby mountain ridge where he had protection from discovery. Although a successful personal recovery event, several more aircraft were lost. See “2nd F-15E Aviator Recovered in High-Risk CSAR Mission Inside Iran”, SOF News, April 4, 2026.
.A-10’s Final War? The A-10 Thunderbolt II may not be a suitable aircraft for combat against near-peer adversaries – but it is a perfect aircraft to use against Iranian ‘fast boats’ in the Persian Gulf, against drones in the skies of the Middle East, or to assist in personnel recovery events. The Thunderbolt has long been on the Pentagon’s chopping block as DoD shifts from CT and COIN to facing off with Russia and China or involvement with regional powers. The CAS platform may be seeing its last major combat employment. “Operation Epic Fury Could be the A-10 Warthog’s Epic Finale”, by Peter Suciu, National Interest, April 1, 2026.
On Friday, April 3, 2026, the United Arab Emirates recorded its highest daily number of Iranian attacks since March 8: 47 drones, 18 ballistic missiles, and four cruise missiles. U.S. intelligence assesses that Iran still maintains a significant missile launching capability.
The U.S. is deploying most of its long-range JASSM-ER stealth missiles to the Middle East from other locations. The pre-war level was 2,300. Open source estimates suggest that over 1,000 JASSM-ER missiles have been expended since 28 Feb. The JASSM-ER missile (Wikipedia) is a large but stealthy long-range weapon with a 1,000 pound armor piercing warhead. Read more about the JASSM-ER in “SOCEUR’s Demo of Rapid Dragon”, SOF News, November 16, 2022.
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Map: Strait of Hormuz, NASA, 10 Dec 2018
Maritime Situation and Strait of Hormuz
Iranian actions affecting maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz continue to generate concern among regional and global stakeholders. Even limited disruption to commercial shipping can produce outsized economic effects due to the strait’s role as a critical energy transit chokepoint. Control or disruption of the strait remains one of Iran’s strongest levers against the U.S. and its partners.
On Friday, April 4, Iran stated that Iraqi oil could transit the strait. It is unknown if that is all Iraqi oil or just vessels that are Iraqi-flagged. Iraq exports over 3 million barrels a day, most through Basra.
There is a lot of speculation on how the U.S. and others could open up the Strait of Hormuz. Fully reopening the strait during Operation Epic Fury would likely require implementation of a naval convoy system. A similar effort took place in Operation Earnest Will during the ‘tanker war’ of the 1980s. Over 30 U.S. surface ships were involved escorting civilian shipping vessels through the strait. There are a number of reasons why defending commercial vessels in the strait is problematic. Read more in “Macron doubts US ability to open Strait of Hormuz by force”, Washington Examiner, April 2, 2026.
The USS George H.W. Bush, a Nimitz-class aircraft carrier, departed Naval Station Norfolk on March 31, 2026, for the Middle East. It is sailing with an escort of three destroyers and 6,000 sailors. Currently there are two carrier strike groups forward deployed in the region; the USS George H.W. Bush would bring the total to three carrier strike groups in the region.
Reference: BCA’s Iran Conflict Daily Dashboard. Real-time charts on the Hormuz crisis, energy, and macro risk. https://www.bcaresearch.com/collection/bcas-iran-conflict-daily-dashboard
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“48 Hours”. President Trump posted on Truth Social that the ‘ten days’ ultimatum for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz or come to some agreement is coming up. At the moment, subject to change, the time runs out on at 8 p.m. (Washington time), Tuesday, April 7, 2026.
Latest Ceasefire Proposal: The U.S. has proposed a 45-day ceasefire and reopening of the strait.
Iran’s Response: On Monday Iran passed its rejection of the latest ceasefire proposal through Pakistan intermediaries. Iran says it wants a permanent end to the war with guarantees that it won’t be attacked again.
Negotiations, Diplomatic Activity, and More
Sanctions Adjustments. The Iran War has resulted in a shock to the global energy markets. The United States has been forced to provide temporary oil sanctions relief to Iran and Russia in order to bring oil prices down.
Spain continues to refuse the U.S. requests to use Spanish bases for strike operations against Iran. On Tuesday, 2 April, President Trump announced that his administration would cut off all trade with Spain in retaliation for the country’s refusal to allow the US military to use the Spanish bases of Rota and Moron to launch attacks on Iran. Trump went on to say:
“We could use their base if we want, we could just fly in and use it, nobody’s going to tell us not to use it.”
Russian Workers Leave Iran Nuke Plant. Russia is evacuating approximately 200 support personnel from Iran’s Bushehr nuclear plant. Russia is concerned about regional security concerns and nearby bombing attacks by the U.S. and Israel. Russia built the plant and has maintained, operated, and trained personnel at the site.
Intelligence on Iran? Marc Polymeropoulos and Jeremy Hurewitz provide an assessment of the U.S. intelligence picture of Iran in the days prior to the kick off of the Iran War. The U.S. intelligence community (IC) receives high marks on the “find, fix, finish” methodology (think GWOT), but has some ground to make up on assessments of regime change and the Strait of Hormuz. Read more in “How Good is Our Intelligence on Iran?”, Just Security, April 4, 2026.
Iran War and the Number Station. A “number station” began broadcasting strings of numbers on 28 February 2026, shortly after the Iran War began. Number stations have an interesting history – one that “old school” Special Forces communicators (05BS) will identify with. The prevailing theory behind this ‘modern day number station’, known as V32, is that it is a CIA or DIA backed operation to activate or provide instructions to recruited sources in Iran. “Number Stations: Old World Spycraft Surfaces in Iran War”, by Jais Picariello, Grey Dynamics.
Constraints on Mapping Imagery. OSINT bloggers, governments, corporations, and others use online mapping tools (Google Earth, OpenStreet, etc.) and satellite imagery (Planet Labs, BlackSky, Maxar Technologies, SkyWatch, etc.) to conduct analysis and provide products to their clients or audience. Some imagery providers are reportedly implementing voluntary restrictions on imagery collection in the Middle East area of operations. The purpose is to prevent U.S. adversaries from using images for target assessment.
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References
Operation Epic Fury Daily Timeline (National Security Info)
https://www.national-security.info/events/epic-fury/timeline-epic-fury.html
Past Articles by SOF News on Operation Epic Fury
https://sof.news/tag/epic-fury/
Past Articles by SOF News on Iran
https://sof.news/tag/iran
Operation Epic Fury – U.S. Central Command Updates
https://www.centcom.mil/OPERATIONS-AND-EXERCISES/EPIC-FURY/
ISW Daily Iran Update. The Institute for the Study of War provides a daily summary of the events taking place in the Iran War. https://understandingwar.org/analysis/middle-east/
Interactive Map: U.S. and Israeli Strikes on Iran, by the Institute for the Study of War and Critical Threats.
https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/089bc1a2fe684405a67d67f13bd31324
Interactive Map: Maritime Attacks. The Washington Institute map includes detailed descriptions of attacks and incidents, data on each vessel, and geopolitical analysis in the Middle East region from 2017.
https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/menamaritime/
Iran Country Profile by National-Security.Info. Maps, reports, and references.
https://www.national-security.info/country/iran.html
