Reducing China’s Coercive Behavior in the South China Sea Region
By Charles Davis.
During the opening ceremony, marking the beginning of the 2025 Balikatan Military Exercise, USMC LTG James Glynn stated, “We are ready . . . It’s all dedicated to one purpose, to ensure the defense of the Philippines and to maintian a free and open Indo-Pacific!” (AP News, April 21, 2025). The Balikatan Military Exercises, conducted annually between the United States and the Philippines, have evolved significantly since the Trump administrations first term, now including multi-national participation.
The U.S. Philippine Mutual Aid Agreements have enabled the deployment of advanced systems and expanded operational scope, including integrated air and missile defense, amphibious operations, and live-fire drills.
During the 2016 and 2017 exercises, operational focus leaned towards the counterterrorism and humanitarian assistance missions. American troop participation ranged from 5,000 to 7,000 and China gave it only cursory attention, portraying it as insignificant with limited scope.
Exercise objectives shifted in 2018 and continued through 2020, concentrating on incorporating maritime security and coastal defense tactics, which was reflective of growing regional tensions over the South China Sea. U.S. troop numbers increased as well, with approximately 6,000-8,000 participants during those three years.
Additionally, China’s attitude shifted, and Chinese media began framing the drills as provocative, claiming they contributed to the friction over South China Sea disputes. Chinese state media emphasized the drills as a deliberate attempt to challenge its territorial claims and undermine its regional influence. They began to assert the drills were a show of force aimed at encircling China and disrupting its maritime activities.
In 2021 and 2022 operational focus took another turn, shifting to integrated air and missile defense, amphibious operations, and live-fire drills. American military participation also increased, adding another 1,000 service members to the exercise.
The change in focus and increase in U.S. troops had Chinese government and news sources criticizing the exercises, accusing the U.S. of militarizing the region. Chinese state media portrayed the drills as a calculated effort on the part of the Americans to escalate tensions and provoke confrontation, particularly in the context of Taiwan and the South China Sea. Reporting highlighted the live-fire drills as a direct challenge to China’s military capabilities.
In 2023, the Balikatan Military Exercises incorporated advanced systems like the NMESIS missile system and HIMARS rocket launchers for the first time. More than 14,000 U.S. and allied troops participated, highlighting another milestone in Indo-Pacific cooperation. Those countries included Australia, Japan, and South Korea, with contributions in amphibious landings, missile defense, and cyber operations.
Not surprisingly, the CCP labeled the drills as a direct threat to China’s sovereignty. Chinese state media called the advanced technology a deliberate provocation, describing the deployment of advanced missile systems and rocket launchers as an attempt to undermine China’s strategic objectives and assert dominance in the region.
The 2024 exercise expanded multilateral participation with France contributing a frigate and a support vessel, while Australia, for its part, deployed a contingent of 500 troops, along with armored vehicles and reconnaissance aircraft. Activities focused on high-end coastal defense and maritime security. U.S. troop participation reached 11,000 for the first time and integration of both the HIMARS and NMESIS continued, demonstrating the level of sophistication the drills had reached.
China’s embassy in Manila issued strong warnings, accusing the U.S. and its allies of “sowing chaos” (Newsweek, April 27, 2025) in the South China Sea. The CCP emphasized its opposition to “external interference” and “bloc confrontation,” portraying the exercises as a provocation aimed at undermining regional stability. Additionally, China’s defense ministry declared that its military was closely monitoring the drills and would respond with “effective measures” if necessary.
This year is the largest iteration to date, involving over 14,000 troops, emphasizing full-scale battle simulations and interoperability, likely incorporating technology developments through project convergence. The exercises were multinational, with the UK, Canada, South Korea, Japan, France and Australia participating and nineteen other countries attending as observers. France deployed additional naval assets, while Australia increased its troop contribution to 700 and included advanced surveillance drones. Japan and South Korea contributed cyber defense and amphibious operations units.
The CCP issued multiple statements condemning the drills as a direct threat to regional stability and sovereignty. China’s foreign ministry accused the U.S. and its allies of pursuing a containment strategy aimed at undermining its influence in the Indo-Pacific. “The parties concerned are advised not to provoke on the Taiwan issue, and those who play with fire will burn themselves“. (Independent, April 21, 2025) The Chinese embassy in Manila described the exercises as a deliberate provocation and warned of potential consequences for regional peace.
The Balikatan exercises continue to expand and are shaped by enhancements and new base agreements between the United States and the Philippines. The U.S. Philippine Mutual Aid Agreements have enabled the deployment of advanced systems and expanded operational scope, including integrated air and missile defense, amphibious operations, and live-fire drills.
The new bases enhance interoperability, which contributes to and augments allied contributions. This shift reflects the Trump administration’s approach to countering regional threats, particularly China’s assertiveness in the South China Sea and its growing naval presence. A recent example is China’s new naval access in Cambodia, which further underscores the need for continued Balikatan exercises. This development represents a strategic challenge to regional stability and U.S. influence. The exercises serve as a deterrent against potential aggression and a demonstration of commitment from multiple regional allies.
Looking ahead, the U.S. anticipates the United Kingdom and Canada to contribute naval assets and cyber defense units, with Canada potentially providing specialized training teams and reconnaissance capabilities. The increasing scale and complexity of these drills underscore their role in enhancing regional deterrence and alliance cohesion. The Trump administration’s more nuanced approach to deterrence is dynamically different than President Eisenhower’s Taiwan Strait Crisis of 1954-58 and will hopefully lead to increased partnerships and a decrease in China’s coercive behavior.
