Assessment (as of Mar 1, 2026)
Operation Epic Fury currently appears structured as a decapitation and suppression campaign intended to disrupt Iranian command networks while degrading missile and naval capabilities before Iran can organize sustained regional retaliation.
Highlights. The campaign against Iran could last a month. France, Britain, and Germany are concerned about the Iranian attacks on targets in several countries in the Middle East – attacks going beyond just Israel. Over 40 top leaders of Iran’s government and military were killed in the opening salvos of the conflict on Saturday, February 28, 2026. The attacks against Iranian leadership continued into Sunday.
President Trump says campaign could last a month:
“It’s always been a four week process. We figured it will be four weeks or so. It’s always been about a four week process so – as strong as it is, it’s a big country, it’ll take four weeks – or less.”
Iran appears to be confronting both external military pressure and potential internal political instability. Commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has been significantly disrupted and insurance costs for shipping has spiked.
U.S. Service Members Killed. Three members of the U.S. military were killed and five seriously wounded on March 1, 2026 as part of Operation Epic Fury from an Iranian mission attack . Several others sustained minor shrapnel injuries and concussions. (CENTCOM, 1 Mar 2026, X) The three service members were serving with a unit under the U.S. Army Sustainment Command (ASC) deployed to Kuwait.
U.S. Airbase in Iraq Struck. The U.S. airbase at Erbil International Airport in northern Iraq has been struck in an Iranian attack.
Gulf Nations Attacked by Iran. Several countries in the Gulf region were attacked by Iranian missiles and attack drones. These include the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman, and Saudia Arabia. One of them, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), has closed its embassy in Iran and withdrew its ambassador and all diplomats. The UAE says that Iran hit civilian sites, including residential areas, airports, ports, and service facilities.
Oil Tanker Struck in Strait of Hormuz. Iran attacked an oil tanker on March 1, 2026 in the Strait of Hormuz. Unconfirmed social media reporting suggested that it is part of Iran’s ‘shadow fleet’ of sanction oil tankers. It appears they attacked their own vessel.
Iranian Warships Sunk. President Trump pubically claimed that nine Iranian ships have been destroyed or sunk as of Sunday morning (EST). One ship, an Iranian Jamaran-class corvette, was struck by U.S. forces during the start of Operation Epic Fury. The ship was attacked and destroyed in the Gulf of Oman at a Chah Bahar pier. (Image: CENTCOM, 1 Mar 2025)
Iranian Regime Leadership Decimated. U.S. officials stated that more than 40 senior leaders of the regime were killed in the opening air strikes of Operation Epic Fury. (Reuters, Mar 1, 2026) This has affected the command and control of Iranian security forces. Iran now has a succession crisis with competing groups seeking power within the government of Iran. The clerics and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps are the main power brokers in forming a new leadership. Some media sources say that Ayatollah Alireza Arafi has been named as acting Supreme Leader. Some reports indicate that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the sixth president of the Islamic Republic of Iran, has been killed – but his death is unconfirmed.
IRGC HQs Struck. The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) headquarters was struck on February 28 by sea-launched missiles from a U.S. surface ship.
IDF Mobilization. The Israeli Defense Force (IDF) has mobilized 100,000 reservists. Ground troops have reinforced all of Israel’s borders with Syria, Lebanon, and Gaza.
U.S. Munitions Shortage? There is concern among national security observers of the finite number of Tomahawk missiles and Patriot missiles in the U.S. inventory. Between Operation Midnight Hammer, positioning of munitions in Europe and the Indo-Pacific, and this current operation, the U.S. may run through its inventory of key weapons munitions. Iran has more inexpensive missiles and drones than the U.S. and Israel has of air defense weapons. Some estimates say that the IRGC currently has about 2,500 missiles.
New PrSM Ballistic Missile. A new weapons was deployed and used against Iran. The PrSM can fly hundreds of miles further than its predecessor ATACMS. “America’s New PrSM Ballistic Missile Just Made Its Combat Debut in Iran Strikes”, The War Zone, March 1, 2026.
B-2s Enter the Fight. This aircraft has a lot of capabilities, carrying JDAMs and MOPs. One B-2 can carry 80 500 lb JDAMs.
Air Superiority. The Israeli Defense Force claims that the Israeli Air Force has achieved air superiority over Iran. U.S. and Israeli forces can operate over the skies of Iran without prohibitive interference.
And the United Kingdom? The UK has reversed course and is now granting permission for the U.S. to use UK bases for ‘defensive support’. This opens up Diego Garcia and RAF Fairford for use in the conflict with Iran. UK officials indicate that striking a missile launch site in Iran is a ‘defensive’ measure. British jets are now operating within the conflict zone. Listen to Keir Starmer for an update (X, 1 Mar 2026, Starmer is the Prime Minister of UK).
French Aircraft Carrier Deploys. The Charles-de-Gaulle was previously enroute to the Baltic Sea; however, it is deploying to the Mediterranean Sea. It is the flagship for a carrier strike group. There are mixed reports on this event. Some say the aircraft carrier is enroute to the Middle East and some say it is not!
De-escalation? Iran is passing messages to Gulf states that indicate they are open to de-escalating the current conflict. No response from the U.S. or Israel on this topic.
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Maps: Derived from CIA.
