Strategic Friction Emerges as Military Momentum Continues
Covering Developments from 20-27 March 2026
Executive Summary
During the past week of Operation Epic Fury, U.S. and Israeli military operations continued to degrade Iranian military capability while strategic challenges became more pronounced. The United States and its partners maintained a high operational tempo, targeting missile infrastructure, naval assets, and military production facilities. However, Iran’s leadership structure has demonstrated resilience, and Tehran continues to leverage its geographic control of the Strait of Hormuz to exert pressure on global energy markets. Diplomatic activity increased, with competing ceasefire proposals reflecting widening gaps between Washington and Tehran over acceptable end-state conditions. Meanwhile, regional escalation risks remain elevated as proxy activity persists in Lebanon and Iranian missile and drone attacks continue against Gulf state infrastructure.
At the operational level, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) reports significant degradation of Iranian naval and missile capabilities. However, strategic objectives remain less clearly defined, raising questions regarding the long-term trajectory of the conflict. Economic effects, alliance cohesion challenges, and growing munitions expenditure pressures suggest that the conflict may be entering a transitional phase where political outcomes increasingly shape military decision-making.
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Key Developments
- U.S. and Israeli forces continue high-tempo strikes against Iranian military targets
- Iran retains strategic leverage through control of the Strait of Hormuz
- Diplomatic negotiations show limited convergence between U.S. and Iranian positions
- U.S. force posture is expanding with addition MEUs and airborne units deploying
- Oil prices remain elevated due to uncertain maritime security
- U.S. precision munitions stockpiles, particularly Tomahawk cruise missiles, are dwindling
- Strategic end-state objectives for the conflict are ambiguous
- 10 US troops wounded in Iranian attack on Prince Sultan Airbase
- Commentary and Analysis
Operational Overview
The past seven days have demonstrated continued U.S. operational dominance in the kinetic domain. Admiral Brad Cooper, commander of U.S. Central Command, stated on Wednesday, March 25, that the military operation in Iran remains “on plan or ahead of plan”. He said the U.S. has struck more than 10,000 military targets and destroyed “92% of the Iranian Navy’s largest vessels.” Over two-thirds of Iran’s drone, missile, and naval production shipyards and facilities have been destroyed. A CENTCOM spokesman said that nearly 300 U.S. service members have been wounded since the beginning of the Iran War. Many of them have been returned to duty. Cooper provided an update on Operation Epic Fury, March 25, 2026. (U.S. Central Command Video)
https://www.dvidshub.net/video/1000878/centcom-commander-provides-update-operation-epic-fury
The United States appears to be achieving tactical objectives related to attrition of Iranian military capability. However, defining measurable strategic success continues to present challenges, particularly given the persistence of Iranian retaliatory capabilities and regional proxy networks.
The Iranian leadership has been decimated. But . . . the appointments of several Iran-Iraq war-era IRGC leaders to high-profile positions demonstrate that the killing of Ali Khamene’i has fueled a tilt toward hardline figures. They will likely insist on major U.S. concessions for ending the war. “Iran’s Power Structure Adapts to War”, Intelbrief, The Soufan Center, March 26, 2026. The Iranians continue to control the Strait of Hormuz and launch missiles and drones, at considerably less numbers, at targets in the Middle East.
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Image: Iranian Shahed 136 drone (image by ChatGPT, March 12, 2026).
Air Campaign
The U.S.-Israel strike campaign continues to focus heavily on Iranian missile infrastructure, naval vessels, and associated military-industrial targets. Israeli strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure, including upstream natural gas facilities, may represent an attempt to generate internal economic pressure on the Iranian regime. These attacks also carry escalation risks due to their potential impact on global energy markets.
TLAMs. More than 850 Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles (TLAMs) have reportedly been expended during the first month of the conflict, highlighting both the intensity of the campaign and potential long-term implications for U.S. munitions inventories. (The Washington Post, 27 Mar 2026) Over 535 TLAMs were shot off at the 16 day point. (Panye Institute) Given production rates of only a few hundred Tomahawk missiles annually, sustained high-volume usage may require adjustments in targeting priorities or increased reliance on alternative strike platforms. The precision missiles can be fired from Navy surface warships and submarines and were first used in combat in 1991 during the Persian Gulf War. Only a few hundred of the missiles are manufactured each year. There were probably about 3,000 to 4,500 Tomahawks prior to the start of the 2026 Iran War. See also “Magazine depth: Rapid depletion of missile stockpiles in Iran raises concerns about US readiness”, by Geore Headley, Small Wars Journal, March 27, 2026.
Iranian missile and drone attacks continue at reduced intensity relative to the opening phase of the conflict but remain sufficient to create persistent risk for Gulf state infrastructure. Missile strikes targeting regional facilities, including aviation infrastructure and energy production assets, underscore Tehran’s continued ability to impose economic costs on the broader international system. One attack sparked a big fire at Kuwait International Airport.
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Image: The guided-missile destroyer USS Chafee (DDG 90) launches a Block V Tomahawk. (U.S. Navy photo by Ensign Sean Ianno, 30 Nov 2020)
Maritime Security and the Strait of Hormuz
Control of maritime access through the Strait of Hormuz remains one of Iran’s most significant sources of leverage. Iran has selectively allowed passage for vessels associated with certain countries while restricting access for others. This selective enforcement approach enables Iran to apply economic pressure while maintaining plausible deniability regarding broader disruption of international commerce. As of March 19th, about 90 ships have passed through the strait; most with ties to Iran, India, and Turkey. (AP, 18 Mar 2026)
Tehran has explored legal mechanisms to impose tolls on commercial shipping transiting the strait, a move that would reinforce its ability to influence global energy flows. Iran is preparing a law to charge tolls for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. It may be difficult for the U.S. military to provide security for commercial vessels passing through the strait. The Russia-Ukraine War provides an example of how hard it is to defend shipping in an age of aerial and naval drones. Ukraine, with no navy, has been able to keep the Russian Black Sea Fleet from operating in much of the Black Sea for the past four years. At the moment, vessels that pay a $2 million ‘transit fee’ to Iran are allowed to pass through the strait.
Iranian drone and missile threats to shipping highlight the increasing difficulty of protecting maritime commerce in an era of relatively low-cost autonomous weapons systems. Lessons drawn from the Russia–Ukraine conflict demonstrate how asymmetric capabilities can constrain naval freedom of maneuver even in the absence of traditional naval parity.
Efforts by the United States to assemble a multinational maritime security coalition have encountered limited success. Several NATO partners and allied nations have declined requests to participate in operations aimed at securing maritime transit routes. This reluctance reflects concerns regarding escalation risk and alliance burden-sharing dynamics.
European leaders are putting distance between themselves and President Trump over the Iran War. Trump has asked for help from NATO to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and the request was dismissed by many European nations. At a Pentagon press conference SecDef Pete Hegseth complained about “ungrateful allies”.
Currently, the European Union (EU) is fielding Operation Aspides, the existing Red Sea maritime security mission. Thus far, Iran has carried out at least 21 attacks on commercial vessels in the region. The UKMTO Operations Centre has been tracking attacks on commercial vessels in the region and issuing advisories.
Aircraft Carriers. The USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78), one of two aircraft carriers (NSI) conducting attacks against Iran, is leaving the fight to undergo repairs at Naval Support Activity Souda Bay, Crete. A fire took place on March 12 that has damaged the sleeping quarters of many of its crew. The fire started in a laundry room. The USS George H. W. Bush carrier strike group left Norfolk, Virginia, earlier this week for its regularly scheduled deployment and will be headed to the Middle East.
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Photo: 31st MEU on Patrol in Okinawa (DVIDS)
Force Posture Developments
U.S. force posture in the region continued to expand during the reporting period. Amphibious forces including the USS Tripoli, USS New Orleans, and the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) are entering the CENTCOM area of responsibility. A MEU typically has 2,200 Marines assigned.
Elements of a brigade of the 82nd Airborne Division is heading to the region as well. This elite group of infantry, based at Fort Bragg, NC, will expand options available to the CENTCOM commander. The airborne troops, along with Marines, could get involved in securing Iran’s Kharg Island, part of the shoreline along the Strait of Hormuz, or perhaps Iranian islands in the Persian Gulf.
President Trump may be asking Congress for $200 billion more to prosecute the Iran War. Weapons stocks have been depleted in the war and need to be replenished. It appears that the Pentagon is requesting thousands more troops to be sent to the Middle East. (Military Times, 18 Mar 2026) Currently there are about 50,000 in the region now.
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Map of Middle East – image derived from CIA map.
Regional Activity
Lebanon. The Israeli ground offensive into southern Lebanon and bombing as far north as Beirut is continuing. The Lebanon government is hoping to open peace talks but Israel and Hezbollah have no interest at this time. Hezbollah operations targeting northern Israel persist, while Israeli ground operations in southern Lebanon show no indication of near-term termination. Hezbollah stated that it launched 80 attacks on Israel on Wednesday, March 25th. Israel plans to control larger parts of southern Lebanon – remaining there even after the fighting there winds down. (New York Times, 24 Mar 2026)
Iran continues to employ missile and drone strikes targeting regional partners of the United States, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. Iranian targeting patterns suggest an effort to impose economic and political costs on states perceived as supporting U.S. operations. At this point, Iran has attacked all six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).
Iranian Kurdish groups initially appeared to represent a potential pressure point against Tehran, but the United States appears to have reduced emphasis on encouraging Kurdish involvement in the conflict. Without external guarantees of support or air cover, Kurdish forces are unlikely to initiate major cross-border operations. In the early days of the Iran War, the Trump administration looked at encouraging the Iranian Kurdish groups to cross from their sanctuaries in Iraq into Iran to take part in regime change. Since then, the administration has backed off on the objective of regime change and working with the Iranian Kurds. Read more in “The Promise and Pitfalls of Arming the Kurds”, War on the Rocks, March 25, 2026. Iranian Kurdish militias in the mountains of Iraq are looking at opportunities to conduct operations in Iran – but without air cover, political guarantees, and reliable backers – they will not cross the border (New Lines Magazine, 19 Mar 2026)
In Iraq, militias aligned with Tehran have been launching drone attacks against U.S. air bases, facilities and other structures of U.S. interest. NATO personnel involved in training Iraqi forces have been pulled out of locations in the Middle East amid security concerns related to the ongoing war.
On Friday, March 27th, the Houthis of Yemen warned they could intervene if the conflict escalates, including Red Sea attacks, disrupting maritime traffic through the Bab al-Mandab Strait, or involvement of additional countries. They have been able to launch ballistic missiles into Israel in the past and may opt to do that again.
Ukraine has reportedly deployed personnel to assist Gulf states in countering Iranian drone threats, illustrating the increasingly internationalized nature of counter-UAS cooperation. Ukraine has deployed about 200 personnel across the Middle East to help Gulf states with the threat from Iranian drones. The U.S. may be dipping into weapons and critical munitions destined for Ukraine to replenish weapons stocks for the Middle East conflict. The diversions would include air defense interceptor missiles and other high end air defense systems. The Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List (PURL) initiative has ensured a flow of select military equipment to Kyiv.
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Image: Iran War Negotiators. ChatGPT, 27 March 2026.
Negotiations and Diplomatic Activity
U.S. 15-Point Proposal. Diplomatic engagement increased during the reporting period, although significant gaps remain between U.S. and Iranian negotiating positions. Pakistan is serving as an intermediary for indirect discussions between Washington and Tehran. Iran has dismissed the initial 15-point ceasefire proposal from the United States, according to the state-run Fars news agency. The proposal had been received on Wednesday, March 25, 2026. Elements of the ceasefire proposal included sanctions relief, civilian nuclear cooperation, missile limits, rollback of Iran’s nuclear program, monitoring by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), restrictions on Iran’s support for armed groups, and the opening of shipping access through the Strait of Hormuz.
The Trump administration has extended a temporary pause on strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure for an additional ten days, potentially reflecting a desire to preserve diplomatic space for negotiations. The pause is extended out to Monday, April 6, 2026.
Iranian Proposal. Iran’s plan includes a halt to killing its officials, steps to ensure no other war takes place against Iran, war reparations, ending hostilities, and Iran keeping control over the Strait of Hormuz. (AP, 25 Mar 2026) The elimination of Iran’s top leadership has sidelined political leadership in favor of the hardline Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Iran says that the U.S. is “negotiating with itself.” President Trump says that if Tehran does not accept a deal to end the war that he will “unleash hell.”
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Photo: Commercial oil tanker AbQaiq. U.S. Navy photo by Photographer’s Mate 1st Class Kevin H. Tierney.
Economic Implications
Global economic markets continue to respond to uncertainty regarding energy flows through the Persian Gulf. On February 27, the day before the U.S.-Israel war against Iran started, the Brent crude oil price was $71.32. On Friday, March 27 the price was $113.39 a barrel; about a 50 percent increase from last month.
The Trump administration has granted a temporary sanctions waiver on Iranian oil allowing the Islamic Republic of Iran to sell oil. The authorization applies to shipments that were already loaded onto tankers before March 20, 2026; apparently worth over $15 billion. U.S. oil importers are free to purchase the Iranian oil. U.S Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent provides the rational for this move in a post on X dated March 20, 2026. The U.S. is attempting to contain the skyrocketing price of oil and gas.
And it is Not Just Oil! Nearly half of the world’s seaborne urea – a key nitrogen fertilizer – passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Corn, an highly nitrogen-intensive crop, will see some dramatic price increases. Urea prices have risen by more than 50 percent over the past three weeks. American farmers will bear part of this burden – one-third of the world’s corn production is located in the United States. (Atlantic Council, 27 Mar 2026) . . . . and the gas? Gas prices at the pump shot up as well, a dollar higher than a month ago.
The four-week long war has put the global economy into a state of anxiety. Gas and oil prices are going higher and the financial markets are taking a hit. On Thursday, US stocks had the biggest loss since the war with Iran started, S&P dropping 1.7%. This was the fifth straight losing week, which would be the longest such losing streak in almost four years. (USNI News, 27 Mar 2026)
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Photo: An Air Force F-16 takes flight in the Middle East in support of Operation Epic Fury in the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility, March 2, 2026. (photo courtesy of U.S. Air Force)
General Topics
Not a “War”. President Trump is not using the word “War” when talking about the Iran conflict. He is concerned that Congress has not authorized a war. His preferred term to describe the conflict is “military operation”. The 1970s-era War Powers Act generally restricts the use of military force to 60 days unless Congress authorizes more time. The last formally declared war was during World War II. Congress has used an “Authorization for Use of Military Force” (AUMF) to authorize military actions in 1991, 2001, and 2002.
10 U.S. Troops Wounded. Ten U.S. service members were wounded Friday in an Iranian missile and drone strike on an installation building at Prince Sultan Airbase in Saudi Arabia. Two of them are seriously wounded. Aircraft were damaged – to include multiple refueling planes and an E-3 Sentry.
Tulsi Gabbard, the U.S. Director of National Intelligence (DNR), testified before Congress on 18 March and stated that it was not her job to determine what is an “Imminent threat” when asked if Iran was an “imminent threat”. (Things that make you go “Hmmm”.)
NCTC Director Joe Kent resigned (X, 20260317) from his position in opposition to the War on Iran; saying there was no imminent threat to the U.S. His resignation puts a spotlight on divisions in the GOP and President Trump’s MAGA coalition.
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Commentary
General (Ret.) Joe Votel, former USSOCOM and CENTCOM commander, talks about security Iran’s uranium, seizing Kharg Island, the number of U.S. interceptors remaining, and how long Epic Fury will last. (The War Zone, 20 Mar 2026)
Fixed U.S. Basing a Vulnerability. The United States has engaged in a war with a country that not only has cruise missiles but thousands of cheap but destructive drones. The vast majority of these Iranian weapons are destroyed prior to reaching their target. However, some are getting through the air defense systems. The U.S. has had to pull back from many of the fixed bases in the Persian Gulf region forcing many military personnel to work remotely from temporary locations. This relocation reduces capability, complicates command and control, and strains the logistical systems. “Iran’s Attack Forces U.S. to Fight Remotely”, The New York Times, March 25, 2026. (subscription)
Iranian Kurds. Initially, the Trump administration thought they could leverage Kurdish resistance to the Iranian regime. This would involve encouraging the Iranian Kurd armed groups to cross from Iraq into western Iran. Presumably, the U.S. would assist with advisors (SF, JSOC, and/or CIA paramilitary), logistics, communications, information warfare, and air cover. However, as time went on, the administration abandoned plans to involve Iranian Kurds in the conflict (at least it seems that way, what is happening on the ground could be a different story). Read more in “The Promise and Pitfalls of Arming the Kurds”, by Jonathan Schroden and Zack Gold,War on the Rocks, March 25, 2026.
Iran: Losing but Winning? This article advances the argument that Iran may be losing in the conventional military fight but gaining strategically because it prepared for the long fight. Decades of preparation have produced resilient command structures, adaptable asymmetric methods, and an economic warfare strategy centered on the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf infrastructure. Iran’s strategic patience and pain tolerance may turn the Iran War into a geopolitical victory. “Iran’s Long Game: Decades of Preparation Are Paying Off”, by Narges Bajoghli, Foreign Affairs, March 26, 2026.
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Image: Strait of Hormuz, NASA, 10 Dec 2018.
Strategic Assessment
The current phase of Operation Epic Fury reflects a divergence between operational success and strategic clarity. U.S. and Israeli forces have demonstrated the ability to significantly degrade Iranian military capacity, yet Tehran retains key sources of leverage, including geographic control of maritime chokepoints and the ability to conduct asymmetric attacks through proxies.
The resilience of Iranian political structures suggests that leadership targeting alone may not produce rapid regime capitulation. Historical experience indicates that regimes under external pressure often consolidate internal control, particularly when conflict reinforces nationalist narratives. “Iran’s Power Structure Adapts to War”, Intelbrief, The Soufan Center, March 26, 2026.
Sustained expenditure of precision munitions and continued force deployments indicate that the conflict may extend beyond initial expectations. Strategic decision-makers will likely need to balance military pressure with diplomatic engagement in order to achieve a politically acceptable end state. From an operational perspective, the Iran War has been a resounding success; from a strategic perspective, it may very well end up with a different storyline.
Trump: War is Won. On Tuesday, March 24,2026, President Trump declared that the war in Iran had already been won. Trump said that peace negotiations with representatives from Iran were ongoing: “They want to make a deal so badly.” (The Washington Post, 24 Mar 2026)
Victory? If the Iran War ended right now, Iran could declare victory. The regime is intact, they ‘own’ the Strait of Hormuz, they still have their nuclear enrichment program (and material), and their proxies (although damaged) are still operating. Not losing for Iran, is winning.
Endstate Unknown. The deaths of top Iranian leaders did not lead to the collapse of the Islamic Republic. The regime has demonstrated that they will suffer tremendous losses before capitulation. Stopping Iran from attacking shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and other Gulf nations will be extremely difficult in this era of aerial and naval drones. Trump has had difficulty in defining the wars objectives and what victory looks like; he needs an off-ramp and can’t seem to find it. Read more in “America Has No Good Options in Iran”, by Ilan Goldenberg, Foreign Affairs, March 23, 2026.
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Operation Epic Fury Daily Timeline (National Security Info)
https://www.national-security.info/events/epic-fury/timeline-epic-fury.html
Past Articles by SOF News on Operation Epic Fury
https://sof.news/tag/iran
Interactive Map: U.S. and Israeli Strikes on Iran, by the Institute for the Study of War and Critical Threats. https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/089bc1a2fe684405a67d67f13bd31324
ISW Daily Iran Update. The Institute for the Study of War provides a daily summary of the events taking place in the Iran War. https://understandingwar.org/analysis/middle-east/
Interactive Map: Maritime Attacks. The Washington Institute map includes detailed descriptions of attacks and incidents, data on each vessel, and geopolitical analysis in the Middle East region dating from 2017. https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/menamaritime/
Iran Country Profile by National-Security.Info. Maps, reports, and references.
https://www.national-security.info/country/iran.html
