U.S. and Israeli forces are continuing their attacks across Iran hitting a variety of targets ranging from aircraft, airfields, communications nodes, leadership, radar sites, naval vessels, and more. There are reports that Israel has been striking Iranian oil production facilities. The Iranian navy has suffered some very significant losses. Very little shipping is transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Reports indicate that a U.S. Tomahawk cruise missile mayhave struck an Iranian school. The U.S. is expending significant resources intercepting Iranian missiles and drones. Iran appears to be holding out, believing the U.S. will quit the fight.
Downed KC-135. CENTCOM announced that a KC-135 refeuling aircraft has gone down in Iraq on March 12, 2026. The incident occurred in friendly airspace during Operation Epic Fury, and rescue efforts are ongoing. Two aircraft were involved in the incident. One of the aircraft went down in western Iraq, and the second landed safely. CENTCOM says it ws not due to hostile fire or friendly fire.https://x.com/CENTCOM/status/2032211125882745265
Various news sources report that two KC-135s were involved. One landed safely in Israel and the other went down in Iraq. The downed KC-135 is reported to have six crew members.
Key Developments in Operation Epic Fury over the Past Week.
- Overall Naval Activity – Strait of Hormuz, 51 Iranian ships hit, and more
- U.S. Attack on Iranian School Kills 175, bad targeting data?
- Iranian Drone Attacks, U.S. targets are hit
- Boots (and SOF) on the Ground?
- 140 U.S. Troops Wounded
- Closing U.S Consulate in Turkey
- MQ-9 Reapers Over Iran
Naval Activity
Status of Iranian Navy. On Monday, March 9, 2026, The U.S. hit and destroyed an Iranian warship off the coast of Bandar Abbas, Iran. At a press conference held on Monday, March 9, 2026, President Trump said that the U.S. has sunk a total of 51 Iranian naval vessels. If accurate, the figure would represent roughly half of Iran’s naval fleet. On March 10, 2026, U.S. Central Command reported that US forces destroyed 16 Iranian minelayers near the Strait of Hormuz.
Strait of Hormuz. The closure of the passage between the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea has affected the supply of oil around the world. The primary threat from Iran in the strait is the use of missiles or air and sea drones to strike oil tankers. As of Thursday, the total number of oil tankers hit by Iran in the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf is 16. There are currently no indications of large-scale Iranian naval mining operations, though fewer than ten mines may have been deployed. Many of the countries that have oil reserves have committed to releasing some to the market. Iran’s (new) Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei said that the leverage of closing the Strait of Hormuz should be used, the strait will be closed until the war ends, and that Iran’s attacks on Gulf Arab neighbors will continue. “Iran’s supreme leader issues first statement, vowing to avenge those killed in the war”, Associated Press, March 12, 2026.
Sea drones have been used in at least two of the attacks on oil tankers by Iran. Ukrainian sea drones have been used to great effect; to the point that the Russian Black Sea fleet has withdrawn from a significant part of the Black Sea. Read more in “Iranian IRGC Show Uncrewed Explosive Boat (USV)”, Covert Shores, March 11, 2026.
French Fleet to Eastern Med. The Charles-de-Gaulle Carrier Strike Group, about twelve ships, has entered the Mediterranean Sea on March 6, 2026 heading to the Eastern Mediterranean, Red Sea, and Strait of Hormuz. The naval group will include several warships, and aircraft carrier, and two helicopter carriers. In the naval group are two French frigates and a Spanish, Dutch, and Italian frigate as well.
Attack on Iranian School Kills 175
Iranian Attacks Continue. The daily number of missiles and drones launched against Israeli and U.S. targets has diminished significantly. However, many attacks are still taking place on Turkey, northern Iraq, the Gulf states, and Israel. Recent targets have targeted civilian and oil infrastructure in the UAE, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain.
U.S. Attack on Iranian School. A strike on a schoolhouse in Iran is reported to have killed 175 people, many of the children. The school, based on videos available on the internet, was hit by a Tomahawk missile. (National Security Info) As of early 2026, three countries are known to actively operate the U.S.-made Tomahawk cruise missile: the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia. The school was on a U.S. target list and may have been mistaken for a military site. According to some news reports, U.S. Central Command relied on target coordinates for the February 28 strike using outdated data provided by the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA). “Outdated intel likely led US to carry out deadly strike on Iranian elementary school, AP sources say”, Associated Press, March 12, 2026.
A preliminary Pentagon investigation has found the reason for the attack may be due to outdated data. The school used to be part of an Iranian naval base. This Washington Post article gets into all the specifics – maps, photos, and videos – as well as a detailed explanation of the event and how it could have happened under the current U.S. targeting system. “Iranian school was on U.S. target list, may have been mistaken as military site”, The Washington Post, March 11, 2026. (subscription)
Iranian Drone Attacks
Threat of Shahed Drones. One of the highlights of the current Iranian conflict is the success Iran has had in launching Shahed drones and hitting targets. While most of these one-way-attack (OWA) drones are shot down some are getting through the air defense systems of the United States military and the Gulf States. A few of the current drone defense capabilities currently deployed to the Gulf region are expensive, primarily Patriot and THAAD interceptor systems. A Shahed drone costs from $20,000 to $35,000 each (depending on the model). One Patriot missile costs $4 million. One THAAD missile costs even more. “Lessons from Ukraine for Defending Gulf Airspace from Shaheds”, War on the Rocks, March 11, 2026.
Buying Ukrainian Drone Interceptors. Ukraine has been warning the U.S. and allied governments for years to prepare for a new kind of war – one where cheap, mass-produced drones would overwhelm the expensive air defense systems currently fielded. In the first week alone, Tehran has fired over 500 ballistic missiles and nearly 2,000 drones at Israeli cities and U.S. bases across 12 countries in the Gulf and Mediterranean region. It is estimated that the U.S. has spent roughly $4 billion in missile defense interceptors in the first week of the Iran war alone. “These are Ukraine’s $1,000 interceptor drones the Pentagon wants to buy”, Military Times, March 11, 2026.
Countering the Drone Swarm. SOF News began last year posting articles on drones once a week – having awakened to the fact that at least for the next few years drones are going to have a big role in future conflicts. While it wasn’t a SOF topic, it was an extremely important national security issue, one in which USSOCOM has a role. So now we are seeing, in the Iran war, why deploying counter drone equipment is vital. Read more in “Countering the Drone Swarm”, SOF News, October 7, 2025.
Six French Soldiers Wounded. The soldiers were injured in a drone attack at a joint Peshmerga-France base in Makhmour, northern Iraq.
Boots on the Ground?
Option: U.S. Commandos. In 2016, U.S. Special Operations Command (USSOCOM) was designated the lead entity for the Counter Weapons of Mass Destruction (CWMD) mission. Special operations forces (SOF) units, members of the intelligence community (IC), and elements of the Department of Energy (DoE) would likely be involved in a joint effort to secure and / or destroy nuclear material. In addition, they would likely be involved in stopping efforts to steal this nuclear material and divert it to other organizations that could be a threat (terrorists, etc.) Read more in “Commando Raid to Secure Iran’s Enriched Uranium May Become a Very Risky Necessity”, The War Zone, March 9, 2026.
And More on the “Commando Option”. Brandan P. Buck says using SOF to seize the Iranian regime’s dispersed stockpile of enriched uranium is a reckless idea closer to fantasy than to feasibility. “The Fantasy of the Iran “Commando Option”, CATO Institute, March 11, 2026.
Israeli Ground Troops in Southern Lebanon. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) is preparing to expand its ground activity in southern Lebanon. Read an update from The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) dated March 12, 2026.
140 U.S. Troops Wounded. The Pentagon released the news that 140 U.S. troops were wounded by Iranian attacks in the Gulf region. Many returned to duty; however, some injuries were severe requiring medical evacuation to a military hospital in Germany and then on to the U.S. “Pentagon says about 140 troops wounded, 8 severely, in war with Iran”, The Washington Post, March 10, 2026. (subscription)
Other Topics
The United States Department of State has advised non-essential personnel in its Adana, Turkey consulate to leave southeastern Turkey. The consulate is located near Incirlik Air Base, a key NATO and U.S. base.
The MQ-9 Reapers are busy over Iran – checking out targets and striking Iranian missile launchers; however, since Monday nine of them have been downed. CBS News reported that 11 MQ-9s had been lost in the conflict with Iran. The MQ-9 costs about $13 to $16 million, depending on when purchased. The latest contract is running about $16 million per aircraft. Read more in “MQ-9s Over Iran: Striking and Finding Targets – But Taking Some Losses”, by Chris Gordon and Stephen Losey, Air and Space Forces Magazine, March 11, 2026.
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Image: Iranian Shahed 136 drone (image by ChatGPT, March 12, 2026).
