A weekly update on the U.S.-Iran conflict covering military, diplomatic, economic, and political topics.
Summary of Past Week in Operation Epic Fury
Over the past week the U.S. and Israel have conducted a massive bombing campaign against targets in Iran. The senior leadership of the Iranian government and military have reportedly been decimated. The air defense systems, naval forces, missile launchers, command and control facilities, and other important targets have been struck. As of this post (March 6th) the U.S. has suffered six KIA and 18 WIA and lost three F-15E Strike Eagles (friendly fire). Israel and Hezbollah are exchanging fires across the border. The term “regime change” is being used less frequently by the administration and DoD over the past few days. Iranian Kurds could soon become a major player in the conflict. A U.S. sub sank an Iranian warship in the Indian Ocean not far from Sri Lanka. A U.S. aircraft crashed in Iraq’s Basra province and recovery efforts are underway for the pilot.
The post below has several sections.
- Events by Day – (Sun through Thu)
- Topics of Interest
- Analysis and Opinion
- Video, Sources, and References
Events on Thursday, March 5, 2026
On Thursday there were reports that a U.S. F-15e aircraft crashed in Iraq’s Basra province and security forces were searching for the pilot. Basra province is predominately Shia – with strong ties to Iran. CENTCOM released a statement that an aircraft has not crashed. Lebanon’s government is moving further from the grasp of Iran and Hezbollah – banning Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) personnel and ending visa-free entry for Iranian citizens. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) continue to attack Hezbollah positions in Lebanon. Iranian UAVs have struck targets in Azerbaijan. Some Iranian naval vessels are seeking internment in neutral ports such as Sri Lanka’s Trincomalee Harbor until the end of the war. In response to a U.S. request, Ukraine will provide equipment and specialists to help combat Iranian drones in the Middle East. The U.S. suspended operations at Kuwait City embassy on Thursday. The U.S. Department of State is reacting to criticism that it did not plan appropriately for the evacuation of U.S. citizens from the Middle East.
Past articles by SOF News on Operation Epic Fury:
March 4, 2026, “Epic Fury Update – March 4, 2026”, SOF News
Wednesday Highlights: DoD press conference, two more casualties identified, Iranian warship sunk by U.S. submarine, U.S. transitions from standoff weapons to gravity bombs, and Senate rejects War Powers resolution.
March 3, 2026, “Operation Epic Fury Update – March 3, 2026”, SOF News
Tuesday Highlights: CENTCOM commander provides briefing, DoS assists with AMCIT evacuation, four U.S. casualties identified, and Hezbollah enters the conflict.
March 2, 2026, “Operation Epic Fury Update – March 2, 2026”, SOF News
Monday Highlights: SecDef and CJCS conduct news briefing, Trump outlines core goals of U.S. war on Iran, Qatar downs Iranian aircraft,, and “regime change” – not so much.
March 2, 2026, “Kuwait Shoots Down Three U.S. Jets”, SOF News
A Kuwaiti pilot shoots down three F-15E Strike Eagles in a ‘friendly fire’ incident. All aircrew parachute to safety and are recovered.
March 1, 2026, “Attack on Iran Update”, SOF News
Sunday Highlights: Gulf nations attacked by Iran, U.S. service members KIA, U.S. airbase in Iraq struck, oil tanker hit by Iran in Strait of Hormuz, Iranian regime leadership decimated, Iranian warships sunk, B-2s enter the fight, new PrSM ballistic missile makes debut, IDF mobilization, and concerns on U.S. munitions shortage.
February 28, 2026, “Operation Epic Fury – Details of Attack”, SOF News
February 28, 2026, “Attack on Iran – Operation Epic Fury”, SOF News
Topics of Interest
Iran Targeting Gulf Nations. Why? The Islamist Iranian regime has been striking Oman and Qatar (friendly toward Iran) as well as the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait (neutral countries). Other countries of the Gulf region are being targeted as well; a total of eight Arab states have been attacked by Iran.
Iran’s Drones and Missiles. News reports indicate that Iran is sending mostly ballistic missiles to Israel while it is usually targeting the Gulf states with drones. The Shahed-136 drone has been successful in many cases breaking through the air defense systems. IDF claims it has destroyed at least half of Iran’s missile launchers.
The Iran War and Drone Technology. Two experts discuss how drone technology is shaping yet another conflict and what the United States can learn from Ukraine. “What We Know About Drone Use in the Iran War”, by Steve Feldstein and Dara Massicot, Carnegie Endowment, March 2, 2026.
U.S. Embassies Attacked. Iran has attacked U.S. Embassies in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait City. A multi-drone attack on the U.S. Embassy in Riyadh collapsed the roof and filled the main office building with smoke. The U.S. Department of State is advising Americans to depart the region via commercial means due to safety risks. Countries DoS suggests departure from include Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, UAE, and Yemen.
Iranian Kurds. There was a lot of media coverage about the role the Iranian Kurds will have in the coming days and weeks. The Trump administration is examining options to arm Kurdish forces that are currently operating along the Iran-Iraq border. The Kurds occupy territory in Turkey, northeastern Syria, northern Iraq, and parts of western and northern Iran. The Kurds could place additional pressure on the Iranian regime and potentially trigger a broader popular uprising inside Iran. There are five Iranian Kurdish opposition groups that have recently announced the formation of a unified coalition. Read more on this topic in “Iran’s Western Frontier: The Kurdish Factor in the Expanding Conflict”, The Soufan Center Intelbrief, March 4, 2026.
Map: “Kurdistan” is located in the countries of Turkey, Syria, Iraq, and Iran. Map by the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)
Kurds in Iran? Some UW Going On? CNN has an article about the possibility that the CIA is working to arm Kurdish forces with the aim to forming a popular uprising in Iran. Unconventional warfare (UW) activities could commence in Western Iran in the coming days. Iranian Kurdish armed groups have bases along the Iraq-Iran border, primarily in Iraq’s Kurdistan region. One of the groups is the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (KDPI). “CIA working to arm Kurdish forces to spark uprising in Iran, sources say”, CNN, March 3, 2026.
Strait of Hormuz. Traffic through this strategic gateway to the Persian Gulf is down 80% (as of Monday). Insurance coverage is being pulled or becoming more costly. Oil tankers have been targeted by Iran. The oil tanker Athen Nova was burning in the Strait of Hormuz after being hit by drones.
Analysis and Opinion
Photo: Aircraft is staged for flight operations on the flight deck of Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72) in support of Operation Epic Fury, Mar. 3, 2026. (U.S. Navy photo)
Iran’s Drones and the Interceptor Cost Curve. Iran’s $35,000 Shahed-136 drones are flooding the skies in the Gulf region and over Israel. Most are being knocked out of the sky; but with very expensive anti-aircraft systems. At some point, Israel, the Gulf nations, and the U.S. will run out of interceptors; but the drones will keep coming. In addition, Iran is holding back on some of its high-end ballistic missiles. Once the interceptors are depleted these high-value Iranian missiles will fly into Israel and the Gulf region.
Iran’s Proxy Architecture. The bombing campaign may destroy Iran’s military, economic infrastructure, take out nuclear facilities, and decapitate its leadership. What it won’t do is destroy Iran’s proxy architecture located in Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen, Syria, and Iraq. When you remove a state’s conventional ability to fight, you still have to worry about the asymmetric fight. The proxies of Iran will likely be the center of gravity in the near future. The United States needs to develop a coherent post-kinetic strategy to address this problem. Dr. Joe Funderburke explains this in detail in “We Bombed the Wrong Target”, Small Wars Journal, March 2, 2026.
AI and Current Operations. Reports indicate that large-language-model tools such as Anthropic’s Claude have been used for operational planning and the Pentagon is continuing to use this AI tool in the current operations against Iran. CENTCOM employs the large language model (LLM) for planning, targeting support, battlefield simulations, and other tasks. Anthropic has stated that Claude should not be used for mass surveillance of Americans or for fully autonomous systems. The Pentagon has responded by switching from Anthropic to OpenAI. Over the next six months there will be a transition from Claude to OpenAI. Currently, Claude is likely accessed via the DoD’s Palantir and through other platforms. “AI Integration in Operation Epic Fury and Cascading Effects”, Intelbrief, The Soufan Center, March 3, 2026.
Videos Operation Epic Fury
USS Spruance (DDG 111) Fires a Tomahawk Land Attack Missile (Info NSI), courtesy video, U.S. Central Command Public Affairs, DVIDS, March 2, 2026, 30 seconds. Link to video:
https://www.dvidshub.net/video/997811/uss-spruance-ddg-111-fires-tomahawk-land-attack-missile
U.S. B-1 Bombers Support Operation Epic Fury. U.S. B-1 bombers take off to support Operation Epic Fury, March 1, 2026, U.S. B-1 bombers, struck deep inside Iran to degrade Iranian ballistic missile capabilities. (Courtesy footage from U.S. Central Command) DVIDS, March 3, 2026, 1 min.
https://www.dvidshub.net/video/998024/usaf-support-operation-epic-fury
References
Interactive Map: U.S. and Israeli Strikes on Iran, by the Institute for the Study of War and Critical Threats.
https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/089bc1a2fe684405a67d67f13bd31324
Interactive Map: Maritime Attacks. The Washington Institute just launched a new interactive map chronicling the evolution of maritime attack methods mainly used by Iran and Yemen’s Houthis in the Middle East region since 2017. The map includes detailed descriptions of attacks and incidents, data on each vessel, and geopolitical analysis.
https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/menamaritime/
Iran Country Profile by National-Security.Info. Maps, reports, and references.
https://www.national-security.info/country/iran.html
Listing of U.S. Assets Employed in Operation Epic Fury in the initial strikes, by National-Security.Info
https://www.national-security.info/events/2026/operation-epic-fury.html
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Top Image: The guided-missile destroyer USS Chafee (DDG 90) launches a Block V Tomahawk. (U.S. Navy photo by Ensign Sean Ianno, 30 Nov 2020)
